Digest
What moved this week —
and why it matters to you.
| Commodity | Spot | 4-wk Δ |
|---|---|---|
| Arabica (C-price) | $2.34/lb | +18% |
| Oat milk (bulk) | $4.12/gal | +8% |
| Vanilla extract | $380/kg | +31% |
| Canola oil | $0.68/lb | -5% |
| Almond flour | $3.20/lb | +2% |
| Cane sugar (raw) | $0.22/lb | -3% |
The Arabica C-price closed Friday at $2.34/lb, a level not seen since the 2011 spike. Every independent roaster we spoke to this week said the same thing: their wholesale contracts expire in April, and they don't know what to tell their café accounts yet.
Vanilla is the quieter story. Three pastry directors at New York restaurants told us they're substituting tonka bean in custards to manage cost. One called it "the vanilla reckoning." Tonka bean importers are already seeing inquiry volume triple.
"We repriced our spring menu three times before printing it. Vanilla alone added $0.40 to every dessert."
— Pastry Director, Gramercy Tavern (via Digest, Issue 84)
Before it hits the
Whole Foods endcap.
Tepache is the category to watch in 2026. Three beverage incubators — including Cavu Partners and Goat Rodeo Capital — confirmed they're actively sourcing tepache brands. The Mexican fermented pineapple drink has the trifecta: low ABV, probiotic story, and a flavor profile that doesn't need explanation.
Smoked honey is the dark horse. It appeared on 14% more menus this period versus last year — almost entirely driven by cocktail programs and cheese boards. The artisan producers can't keep up with wholesale demand.
The story behind
the story.
Saigon Roast Co. started as a pop-up inside a Bushwick record shop in 2021. By 2023, Linh had 14 wholesale café accounts. Today: 87 accounts across three cities, a direct-trade relationship with a co-op in Da Lat, and — per sources familiar with the situation — a term sheet from a New York-based food-focused fund she declined to name.
The product is cà phê trứng — egg coffee — in a shelf-stable format. The challenge wasn't the recipe; it was convincing a co-packer to run a 500-unit minimum. "I paid them in advance and sold out in 11 days," she says. "After that, they called me."
What's disrupted.
What to stock now.
The roya outbreak in Huehuetenango is the one supply-chain story that isn't getting enough attention. Three importers we spoke to said their Guatemalan allocation is already spoken for through Q3. If your roaster hasn't locked in pricing, the conversation is already late.
"I've been in this business 22 years. This is the first time I've had three separate origin stories colliding in the same quarter."
— Director of Sourcing, Counter Culture Coffee (via Digest, Issue 84)
What we're watching.
What comes next.
Three things I couldn't stop thinking about this week: the silence from oat milk brands on pricing (they know something), the speed at which Tepache went from TikTok curiosity to VC term sheet, and the number of independent café owners who told me they're considering raising prices for the first time since 2023.
The food industry is entering a pricing reckoning. The operators who read the signals early — and we mean weeks early, not months — are the ones who'll protect their margins when everyone else is scrambling. That's why we write this letter.
First read on whether barista-tier pricing holds through summer.
Tepache brands making their trade debut. Three confirmed booths.
Updated C-price forecasts. Roasters: read this before your April contracts.
Term sheet expected to close. Watch for Series A announcement.